Key points from Clarksons’ current 2026 dry bulk outlook:
Demand side:

Modest growth expected, driven primarily by increased mineral imports (e.g., iron ore, bauxite) supported by potential Chinese economic stimulus measures. However, overall seaborne dry bulk trade growth is projected to slow amid a weaker global/Chinese economic backdrop, weaker coal demand, and ongoing uncertainties from trade policies/tariffs.

Supply side:

Fleet growth remains manageable at around 3% net in 2026 (similar to 2025 levels), with bulkers lagging behind faster-growing segments like containers (6-7%) and LNG (9%). Low orderbook (historically constrained) and limited new orders due to decarbonization caution help keep supply pressure contained. Market balance and rates: Expect a modest correction in freight rates compared to 2025 levels. The market is likely to remain range-bound with some positive periods, but softer overall due to supply additions and demand headwinds. Capesize segments may see relative strength from long-haul trades (e.g., Brazil/Guinea to Asia), while Panamax/Supramax face more pressure from coal weakness. 

Key risks/upside:
Upside: Chinese stimulus boosting steel/infrastructure-related imports; persistent geopolitical disruptions (e.g., Red Sea rerouting adding tonne-miles). Downside: Geopolitical resolutions reducing distances; broader economic slowdown; overcapacity in mid-size segments. Overall, Clarksons views 2026 as a year of cautious moderation for dry bulk—firmer than a sharp downturn but weaker than recent years—with geopolitics playing an increasingly dominant role over traditional supply-demand fundamentals.